Monday 6 April 2015

How Britain voted in 2010-And how that has changed.





How Britain voted in 2010 (Demographically)-and how that has changed (Source: Various YouGov polls, The politico guide to the 2015 general election by Iain Dale and other authors)

All voters: Con 37%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 23%, UKIP 4%, BNP 1%, Green 1%, other 4%. Lab-Con swing of 5%, 65% turnout
Implied by polls this time: Lab 34% (+4%), Con 34% (-3), UKIP 14%(+10) Green 5%(+4), Lib Dem 8%(-15), Others 5%, Con-Lab swing of 3.5%, implied turnout ~70%

18-24: Con 30%, Labour 31%, Lib Dem 30%, others 9%
Implied by polling: Lab 32%(+1), Green 24%(+18), Con 24%(-6), UKIP 10%(+9), Lib Dem 5%(-25), others 13%

65+: Con 44%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 16%, others 9%
Implied by polling: Con 39%(-5), Lab 28%(-3), UKIP 19%(+14), Lib Dem 6%(-10), others 8%

ABC1 (White collar, upper class, upper middle class): Con 39%, Labour 27%, Lib Dem 27%, others 7%
Implied by polling: Con 37%(-2) Labour 29%(+2), UKIP 12%(+11%), Green 7%(+7), Lib Dem 10%(-17), others 5%

C2DE (Blue collar, working class, lower midde class): Labour 35%, Con 35%, Lib Dem 20%, others 10%
Implied by polling: Lab 37%(+2), Con 30%(-6), UKIP 16%(+14), Lib dem 7%(-13), Green 5%(+5), others 5%

Homeowners: Con 45%, Lab 24%, Lib Dem 21%, others 11%
Implied by polling: Con 42%(-3), Lab 25%(+1), UKIP 13%(+12), Lib Dem 7%(-14), Green 7%(+6), others 6%

Social renter: Con 24%, Lab 47%, Lib Dem 19%, other 11%
Implied by polls: Con 20%(-4), Lab 45%(-2), UKIP 18%(+16), Green 5%(+5), Lib Dem 6%(-13), others 6%

Region by region breakdown of votes:

England as a whole:
Conservative: 297 seats (+91 seats compared to 2005)
39.5% (+4%)
Labour: 191 seats (-87)
28% (-7.4%)
Lib Dem: 43 seats (-4)
24.2% (+1.3%)
Other: 2 seats (NC)
8.2% (+2.3%)

Scotland
Conservative: 1 seat (NC)
16.7% (+1%)
Labour: 41 seats (+1)
42.0% (+3%)
Lib Dem: 11 seats (NC)
18.9% (-3.7%)
SNP: 6 seats (NC)
19.9% (+2.3%)

Wales
Conservative: 8 seats (+5)
26.1% (+4.7%)
Labour: 26 seats (-4)
36.2% (-6.5%)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
20.1% (+1.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (+1)
11.3% (-1.3)

Northern Ireland:
Democratic Unionist Party (Conservative aligned) 8 seats (-1)
25.0% (-8.7%)
Sinn Fein: 5 seats (NC)
25.5% (+1.2%)
Social Democratic (Labour aligned) 3 seats (NC)
16.5% (-1.0%)
Alliance Party (Liberal Democrat aligned) 1 seat (+1)
6.3% (+2.4%)

WITHIN ENGLAND:
North East
Conservative: 2 seats (+1)
23.7% (+4.2%)
Labour: 25 seats (-2)
43.6% (-9.3%)
Lib Dems: 2 seats (+1)
23.6% (+0.2%)

North West
Conservative: 22 seats (+12)
31.7% (+3.0%)
Labour: 47 seats (-13)
39.4% (-5.7%)
Lib Dem: 6 seats (+1)
21.6% (+0.3%)

Yorkshire and the Humber
Conservative: 19 seats (+10)
32.8% (+3.7%)
Labour: 32 seats (-9)
34.4% (-9.2%)
Lib Dem: 3 seats (-1)
22.9% (+2.3%)

East Midlands
Conservative: 31 seats (+12)
41.2% (+4.1%)
Labour: 15 seats (-11)
29.8% (-9.2%)
Lib Dems: 0 seats (-1)
20.8% (+2.4%)

West Midlands
Conservative: 33 seats (+15)
39.5% (+4.5%)
Labour: 24 seats (-14)
30.6% (-8.1%)
Lib Dem: 2 seats (NC)
20.5% (+1.9%)

East of England
Conservative: 52 seats (+10)
47.1% (+3.8%)
Labour: 2 seats (-11)
19.6% (-10.2%)
Lib Dem: 4 seats (+1)
24.1% (+2.2%)

London
Conservative: 28 seats (+7)
34.5% (+2.6%)
Labour: 38 seats (-6)
36.6% (-2.3%)
Lib Dems: 7 seats (NC)
22.1% (+0.2%)

South East
Conservative: 74 seats (+13)
49.3% (+4.4%)
Labour: 4 seats (-13)
16.2% (-8.1%)
Lib Dem: 4 seats (-2)
26.2% (+.0.8%)
Other: 2 seats (+2)
8.2% (+3.0)

South West
Conservative: 36 seats (+11)
42.8% (+4.2%)
Labour: 4 seats (-8)
15.4% (-7.4%)
Lib Dems: 15 seats (-3)
34.7% (+2.2%)

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