Thursday 4 December 2014

Marginal seats report December 2014: Labour short 6 of a majority



I have decided to do my first marginal seats report this week. There are 5 months to go until the general election, and everybody is anxious to find out what the result will be. I have assumed in my marginal seats report that there will be a swing to Labour, based on national polling and constituency polling. I have decided to analyse the first 100 seats in the Lab-Con and Lib-Con battleground. They are pictured below, listed from smallest to largest constituencies.


What I did next with this list was to analyse each individual constituency poll, the result last time, and other factors, and I have managed to determine which seats would actually change hands. If there is no constituency poll, I have applied the uniform national swing and then tweaked the prediction according to local factors, such as the size of the Liberal Democrat vote and how well/badly UKIP fared in these seats. Ed Miliband must turn 68 seats on this list from Blue to Red at the general election if he wants to win the election and becomes Prime Minister. This is assuming no Labour collapse in Scotland, and I will analyse Labour and its prospects in Scotland closer to the election, when we can  be sure of how well or badly Labour will do. The most recent figures suggest that there has been a swing of 5% from the Conservatives to Labour, which becomes 6% if the Labour collapse in Scotland is factored in. We also know that the swing from the Liberal Democrats to Labour nationally has been massive-Something like 9.5%, which will also be factored in. I have also factored in when the constituency poll was taken, and how the national picture has changed since then. But, without further ado, here are the results. Every seat that is now coloured Red will be a Labour GAIN, Blue or Yellow a Tory/Lib Dem hold or gain, and purple/green/yellow is a UKIP, Green, or SNP gain.




So, if you take care to count the number of constituencies Labour currently have a lead in, the total would be 61 seats out of their top 100 seats. 3 of Labour's top 100 target seats would go from the Tories to UKIP, 2 seats would be SNP holds, the Liberal Democrats would hold 2 seats, 2 seats would be SNP gains, and the Green Party would (Narrowly) hold Brighton Pavillion. The Tories would hold 28 seats that Labour "Ought to take" on the national swing but will not.Taking all of that into account, and assuming that UKIP would gain 10 seats in total from the Tories, plus 5 Tory gains from the Liberal Democrats, and 7 Lib Dem losses to the nationalists in Scotland, and two extra Labour gains further down the list (Cambridge, Berdmonsey and old Southwark, both seats where Labour have been shown to be ahead) here is what the result would be:

Labour: 320 seats (+62)
Conservative: 250 seats (-56)
Liberal Democrats: 37 seats (-20)
UKIP: 10 seats (+8)
Scottish National Party:13 seats (+7)
Others: 20 seats
Result: The Labour Party will be the largest party, but short of a majority by 6 seats

However, if the Labour Party collapse in Scotland is factored into the equation (I will assume that Labour loses 25 seats to the Nationalists, slightly lower than current polling suggests due to incumbency) here is what the final result would be.
Labour: 295 seats (+37)
Conservative: 250 seats (-56)
Liberal Democrats: 37 seats (-20)
UKIP: 10 seats (+8)
Scottish National Party: 38 seats (+32)
Others: 20 seats
Result: The Labour Party will be the largest party, but short of a majority by 31 seats.

It is clear now that the next election will be fought, won, and lost in Scotland. Labour must hope to recover and be able to make up for ground lost to the SNP if it wants to have any chance of getting a majority next may. I will be making another battleground analysis, this time of the Conservative-UKIP battleground, next week, and my marginal constituency battleground report will be produced again next month, in March, and then at the start of May. At the moment, Labour has the upper hand. It remains to be seen whether or not it will stay that way.                                  





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