Local By Election results: An ominous sign of things to come?

Unless a surprise outlier opinion poll comes out within the next few days, this is going to be the first year since 2002 that the Conservatives have not been ahead of Labour in a single poll all year. There seems to be a worrying trend emerging for the Tories, as yesterdays Local By-Election results show:

Local By Election results from 19th December:

Harper Green on Bolton: Labour HOLD on a swing of 14% from Labour  to the Conservatives
Elm and Christchurch on Fenland: Conservative HOLD on a swing of 25% from Conservatives to UKIP
Market on Forrest Heath: Conservative HOLD on a swing of 30% from Conservatives to UKIP
Haywards Heath: Conservative HOLD on a swing of 10% to UKIP
Scotter on West Lindsey: Independent GAIN from Conservatives
Scotter Rural on Lincolnshire: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservatives on a swing of 25% from Conservatives to Lib Dems
Haywards Heath East on West Sussex: Conservative HOLD on a swing of 2% to UKIP
Croesyceiliog North on Torfaen: Labour HOLD on a swing of 20% from Labour to UKIP
Black Isle on Highland: Independent HOLD on a swing of 6% to SNP

Most of these by-elections happened in Tory heartlands, but a worrying trend is continuing for the Tories- UKIP are polling remarkably well, although due to FPTP they are not gaining many seats, but are finishing 2nd and are beating Labour and the Lib Dems into 3rd and 4th place in the shires. Will this trend be repeated at the next Local Elections? We will have to wait and see.